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Weekly Market Review

Weekly Market Review

Good afternoon,

 

Dr. Doom is at it again. Nouriel Roubini, aka Dr. Doom, sees a global economic recession coming due to a U.S. v. China trade war.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/02/dr-doom-economist-nouriel-roubini-sees-trade-war-tipping-global-economy-into-recession.html

With a name like Dr. Doom, what else should we expect him to say? Yes, his prediction about the housing crisis was correct, see previous WMRs for the real reasons behind that crisis, but he hasn’t been correct about anything else since. Actually, he’s been wrong. He’s missed the longest economic expansion in history. Not the fastest expansion, nor the biggest, but the one that has lasted the longest.  Fortunately or unfortunately, Dr. Doom will eventually be correct. There will be a recession some day down the road, maybe years down the road and he’ll trot out the “I told you so!” It’s not that we should ignore his warnings, just that we should take them with a grain of salt. There’s that old adage that even a broken clock is correct twice per day.

 

Fortunately or unfortunately, Mr. Roubini isn’t alone. Here is an article saying that Morgan Stanley thinks equities are ripe to fall as well.

https://www.nasdaq.com/article/morgan-stanley-warns-of-big-equities-plunge-cm1171343

And here’s another, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/08/morgan-stanley-downgrades-global-equities-on-fears-of-slowing-growth.html

Maybe so.  Or maybe not. Here’s another adage, don’t put all your eggs in one basket. With the caveat, unless you really keep an eye on the basket.

 

Speaking of old adages, since we wrote “with a grain of salt,” we decided to look up the phrase and see where it comes from. There are two generally recognized origins of the phrase and they both relate to poison. It was supposed that if you took your poison with a grain of salt, it would either serve as an antidote or help make you immune to the poison.  In current use, it has come to mean that something should be viewed with skepticism and/or it is not to be interpreted literally.  Now you know.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grain_of_salt

 

Right on schedule is a new article about social security. This time the title is “How Americans Really Think the Govt Should Fix SS.” https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/08/how-americans-really-think-the-government-should-fix-social-security.html

Which leads the WMR back to the subject that we’ve covered so many times in our writings and in our workshops with CPAs. Since our last SS post, several questions have come in, most of them in the same areas. Here is a sampling, along with the short answers. For longer answers, give us a call or shoot us an email.

 

Is SS going broke?

No. There are certainly problems to be addressed, but it is not going broke.

 

Will SS be there for me?

Yes. If you are getting it now, or close to getting it now, say 50+ y/o, you will receive SS and it will look a lot like it looks now. If you’re under 50, you’ll still get it, but it make look a little different.

 

How much will I get?

Depends. You have to have been in the workforce for at least 10 years to qualify for benefits. Once qualified, your benefit at your full retirement age is based on your highest 35 years of earnings history.  The most anyone can get is about $2800/month.

 

When can I get my benefit?

Earliest is at age 62. Every month you wait after 62, the benefit gets bigger. This is true up to age 70, there is no reason to delay SS after age 70.

 

How do I maximize my benefit?

Talk to a professional advisor who knows the system and have them help you coordinate benefits for the family.

 

Can SS personnel help?

They can help fill out forms or tell you how much you’re entitled to, but they cannot help develop strategies to maximize benefits.

 

Where can I get more information?

  www.ssa.gov or www.weeklymarketreview.com or Call Mike 248-948-5100

 

In personal news, our Great Garlic Bread Tour has expanded to 7 local restaurants thus far. Pops Italian in Ferndale is still tops on the list with Pizza House in Ann Arbor close behind. Stay tuned for more reviews. Find us on Instagram at The_Great_Garlic_Bread_Tour.

 

And in other news regarding our youngest daughter, we have been having what we consider to be meaningful business conversations with her lately. She enjoys making crafts, jewelry, artwork, candles and such. So we recently helped her open a bank account which will allow her to deposit funds that she might earn selling those items online. So we’ve begun asking some basic business questions. How much will you charge for what you sell? Why did you choose that price? How much does it cost for the stuff you use to make the items? How long does it take you to make them? What is your time worth? What about shipping costs? And so forth. We’re trying not to lecture her nor dictate terms of her business model, we’re just trying to point out things she might want to consider as she enters the world of commerce.

We’re excited for her interest and enthusiasm. And we’re reminded of ourselves in grade school when we used to buy Bazooka bubble gum by the box and then resell it by the piece. One pocket full of gum and the other full of nickels to make change. Not exactly e-commerce, but commerce nonetheless.

 

LF25 – “Be yourself, everyone else is already taken.” – Oscar Wilde

 

Have a great week.

 

 

Michael J. Acho, MBA, CFP®
Private Wealth Advisor

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Lincoln Financial Advisors/Sagemark Consulting
1000 Town Center, 26th Floor
Southfield, MI  48075
248-948-5100 direct
248-948-5101 fax
248-933-4339 cell
Michael.Acho@LFG.com

www.weeklymarketreview.com

http://lfamichigan.com/page/michael-acho

http://www.linkedin.com/pub/michael-acho/27/913/3a8
 

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